The third and final triathlon event of Paris 2024 – the Mixed Team Relay (MTR) – is set for Monday 6 August, 0800 local time (0700 in the UK) and we now know that it WILL go ahead as planned.
Wednesday’s two individual races – women | men – will surely go down as one of the greatest days in the history of the sport, headlined by that remarkable late comeback from Alex Yee.
Can the new Individual Olympic champion make it a golden double? Here’s my take on the key contenders along with my Mixed Team Relay podium picks while you can check out the full start list as well.
The leading (GOLD) medal contenders
You likely know the score by now if you followed my men’s and women’s individual prediction pieces. In this first of what will be a very short section, I outline only who I believe could WIN this race. The MTR format can be unpredictable and always brings excitement, but once what will be circa 80 minutes of racing and the finishing tape is raised, the cream typically manages to rise to the top.
And for Paris 2024, putting all emotion to one side, I believe there are only two nations who can win this race.
Can anyone stop Team France?
The French could hardly be arriving at this race in better shape. All of their starting quartet finished in the top four individually, with Cassandre Beaugrand (Gold) and Leo Bergere (Bronze) picking up precious Olympic medals in the process. They will be joined by Pierre Le Corre and Emma Lombardi on Monday.
Combine that strength-in-depth with the support of the passionate home crowd alongside a distinguished history at World Championship level in the relay format – the French, for good reason, are the bookies favourites. Every one of their team has won the Mixed Team Relay World Championship at least once.
And yet… many had them as the odds-on pick for Gold in Tokyo (I didn’t), where in a stunning race, they were beaten by both Great Britain and the USA.
If all four athletes produce their best performances and make no mistakes tactically, then Team France will be incredibly difficult to beat. Mixed Team Relay however, is a format where getting everything right is notoriously difficult.
Will it be déjà vu for Great Britain in Paris?
It’s not just the French that have experience. Fitness and health post the Individual race permitting, it will surely be Beth Potter and Georgia Taylor-Brown who will join Alex Yee and Sam Dickinson in the defence of the gold medal won so brilliantly three years ago.
GTB and Yee were part of the gold medal winning quartet in Japan, while Dickinson joined them – alongside Sophie Coldwell – when it was gold again at the 2022 Commonwealth Games in Sutton Park, Birmingham, this time in Team England colours. Potter, of course, was in Team Scotland colours that day.
Three Individual Olympic medallists then, with Sam Dickinson the man who raised his game during the first half of 2024, notably in Kielce, to claim that final spot from Jonathan Brownlee. He was the perfect pilot for Alex Yee on Wednesday, and Monday is now his time to shine – and Yee wants to return the favour.
What will the tactics be? Ahead of Tokyo – remember, MTR was in female-male-female-male order at that point – this was a pretty simple formula for the Brits. In Jess Learmonth you had, in my opinion, the best relay athlete in the world who could – and did – break the race apart inside three minutes, thanks to her incredible swim/bike power. With the change of format and the skillsets of the athletes we have, that option doesn’t exist now. So how should the Brits approach it? British Triathlon Performance Director, Mike Cavendish, believes they will get that tactical question right:
“I would say we’re ahead of people in terms of what we’re doing with our trisuits, our relay tactics and relay strategies. And we’re also ahead in terms of our open water prep.”
Can Great Britain win? Yes they can, but they will have to be tactically and physically close to perfect… and they did exactly that in Tokyo.
Podium Contenders
These features are not about simply creating lists – so to clarify, I am saying that I don’t believe that anyone outside of France or Great Britain will win Mixed Team Relay gold. And that includes the World Champions from both 2023 and 2024… who also won the Test Event (Duathlon format) too.
How close can Team Germany go?
The strength-in-depth of German triathlon can be reflected in one statistic – they were the only nation, besides the hosts, to qualify three athletes for Paris 2024.
Unlike the French however, Wednesday didn’t go their way. Both Laura Lindemann and Lisa Tertsch hit the deck on the wet roads, and joined by Nina Eim, their trio ended up 8th. 9th and 12th, respectively. While Jonas Schomburg (of course!) had his moment leading the men’s race in the first few hundred metres of the run, 18th for Tim Hellwig was their best in the men’s race.
Time after time, the German’s are more than the sum of their parts in MTR competition, and if they do that once again, they can absolutely win an Olympic medal. But can they beat BOTH France and Great Britain to reach the top step? I just don’t see that happening, but the German’s will absolutely be a consistent factor in this race.
Redemption for the United States?
Silver medallists in Tokyo, the Individual races really were ones to forget for Team USA when applying the magnifying glass of elite performance, at least.
Winner of WTCS Yokohama, Morgan Pearson, was the biggest name not to make the large leading pack on the bike and finished well off the pace in 31st. Taylor Knibb exited the water more than two minutes back on Flora Duffy, and while she contributed significantly to the chase pack gaining around a minute, ultimately 19th was well below her ambitions and abilities.
But there is reason for hope… because, broadly, they were in a similar position three years ago, and produced a stunning Mixed Team Relay performance which I wrote about at length at the time.
Pearson and Knibb will be joined by Taylor Spivey and Seth Rider and given the depth of the three teams I’ve already outlined, will absolutely need to match the brilliance of their Tokyo performance three years ago to give themselves a chance of a medal.
Live outsiders
Can anyone else put themselves into the mix? I don’t think so… but perhaps Tokyo gave an insight into what could happen?
Pre-race in Japan, the Dutch team for example were very positive on their medal prospects, something few outside of the Netherlands camp truly believed. And yet, with star names on the women’s side – Rachel Klamer and Maya Kingma – they were supported in some style by Marco Van Der Stel and Jorik Van Egdom, to a fine fourth place finish. Can anyone produce a similar performance this time around?
Based on the Individual race at least, perhaps Team Portugal could spring a real surprise? They had Vasco Vilaca (5th) and Ricardo Batista (6th) there, and they will be joined by Maria Tome (11th) and Melanie Santos. If Melanie can put behind her the disappointment of 45th in the individual, she’s certainly a far better athlete than that result suggests.
If that Portugal call is a little left field – though based on some strong results from Wednesday – then perhaps the form line also suggests that Switzerland shouldn’t be overlooked? Spearheaded by Individual silver medallist, Julie Derron, the same team that secured silver at the World Championships this year – including Max Studer, Cathia Schär and Simon Westermann – will go again. Westermann will come in fresh, as he is a late medical replacement for Adrien Briffod. Studer has been in brilliant run form of late, while Schär, if the opportunity arises, is not afraid to call on her superb bike strength.
Predictions and Podium Picks – who gets the medals?
How can Great Britain put the pressure on the French? That, perhaps, is the key to how this race will play out. I’m pretty sure that Georgia Taylor-Brown will race on leg two, and Beth Potter on leg four… so which way do they go with the men?
If you put Yee first, your goal is to get clear (on the run), with the hope that the new Olympic champion can produce the sort of brilliant run he did at Sutton Park two years ago. Get ahead, make the French chase and see if the pressure makes them crack, with GTB trying to further extend any advantage on leg two.
If you put Dickinson first, the hope is that he swim-bikes with the leaders, and then stays close enough to the front on run (within perhaps 10-15 seconds type of range), that you hand over to our top three athletes to try and go head-to-head with the French. The thinking there would be that GTB – proven to be a fine ‘solo / chaser’ athlete in MTR racing (Montreal 2022) – can get the team straight back into contention on leg two, before handing over to Alex to try and set up Beth for final leg showdown with Cassandre.
The general approach to Mixed Team Relay racing is make sure you stay ‘in’ the race as long as possible, in which case Alex going first is perhaps the prudent, standard approach. The latter suggestion however, could be a ‘risk it for a biscuit’ masterstroke… if it works!
I would not be surprised at all if Great Britain were to retain their Tokyo 2020 title – but ultimately predictions are about probabilities and logic, and so on that basis, I have to go for Team France to take a narrow victory over the Brits.
Behind them, the consistency, strength-in-depth and relay history will, I believe, see Team Germany round out the podium with a Bronze.
- GOLD: Team France
- SILVER: Team Great Britain
- BRONZE: Team Germany
