Olympic Games Triathlon: Predictions and podium picks for women’s showdown at Paris 2024

The clock is ticking and we’ll soon be watching the Paris 2024 Olympic Games Women’s Individual triathlon event.

0800 local time (0700 in the UK) Wednesday 31 July is the date – after the go ahead earlier today – so who are the main contenders for gold – and who are my podium picks – for the women? Let’s dive right into it.

The leading contenders

Following the same approach and structure to my men’s analysis, this first section includes the athletes that I believe can WIN the race. There are certainly others that can impact the race or challenge for the podium, but here are the (only) names from which I believe the top step of the podium will be filled come medal ceremony time.

Rightly or wrongly, I feel this is a little more open than the men’s race… and so there are a few more options to consider:

The home favourite: Cassandre Beaugrand

‘The trend is your friend until the end’ is a well worn term in finance, but if we are going on form, then of course home athlete Cassandre Beaugrand (FRA) simply has to be on your shortlist.

Coming into 2024, Beth Potter had taken the 2023 limelight and World Triathlon title – and when she beat Cassandre (again) at the supertri E World Championship in April, it was perhaps an early sign of that continuing dominance over the home favourite, even though that was a very different format. Fast-forward three months, and Beaugrand has taken impressive wins at both Cagliari and Hamburg and the momentum is absolutely with her now. And with it, a little extra pressure, perhaps?

That win in Italy was notable as it was the French star’s first WTCS victory over the Olympic distance, and while she claimed “I didn’t notice that” from behind her mirrored glasses in her post-race reaction interview with Trevor Harris… you’d have to be a fool to believe her! She knew very, very well. It was a significant milestone.

After suffering from cramping issues in both Paris and Pontevedra in 2023, Beaugrand will have taken great strength from eliminating that statistical anomaly – and will of course be cheered on by a passionate home crowd.

The reigning World Champion: Beth Potter

Beth Potter (GBR) is reigning World Champion, winner of the two biggest short-course races in 2023 and collecting four top tier wins in total last year, the Rio 2016 10,000m track Olympian is of course a gold medal contender. In the UK at least, she might well start as the bookies favourite, despite finishing third to both Beaugrand and Germany’s Lisa Tertsch in her two WTCS races of the season so far.

Beth knows what it takes to win in Paris of course, and publicly at least, isn’t showing concern that she’s not been able to take the win from those two WTCS starts. Potter has Jack Maitland guiding her coaching team, and having been central to the extensive Olympic successes of the Brownlee brothers, few if any have better experience on what it takes to perform on that one day, against the backdrop of the Olympic rings.

Beth may be slight in stature, but when speaking to her many times now in recent years, you never feel she is anything less than granite-like mentally. Whatever happens, you can be sure she will have ticked every possible box in her preparations to perform at her best. It hasn’t been an easy journey from triathlon novice to World Champion, and the Scot will not be resting on her laurels yet, even if others have captured the 2024 spotlight so far.

Potential to flip the script? Lisa Tertsch

While it might seem as though the writing is on the wall for the top two steps of the podium to be taken by Beaugrand and Potter – the order TBC. Harvard graduate Lisa Tertsch (GER) could be the one to flip the script, having split Beaugrand and Potter when taking silver in both Cagliari and Hamburg this season.

She also has a win against the French favourite over the Olympic distance this season at the Europe Triathlon Cup Quarteira. With fast finishing speed too, those results alongside other top performances see her currently reside at #4 in the World Triathlon Rankings and second in the 2024 WTCS standings as of today.

She’s not yet won a WTCS event, but if you follow the form line, you’d be a fool to rule her out in my opinion.

The defending Olympic Champion: Flora Duffy

The defending Olympic champion, Dame Flora Duffy (BER) is perhaps the GOAT of female short-course triathlon, with four World Triathlon Championship titles and two Commonwealth gold medals in a stellar career. And yet, more than a few of you will likely have already written her off. I simply cannot do that, and here’s why.

Duffy’s injury issues have been well documented – more than 500 days away from racing – before returning this season in Yokohama (seventh) and Cagliari (eighth). If you go back and look at that Cagliari race, the Bermudian seemingly went AWOL over the first 5km of the run, before passing nine athletes over the second two laps, a closing 5km which was just a few seconds shy of matching the trio of medallists.

More than two months on, with the confidence that she was not too far away from what might be needed in Paris, I believe – that she will believe – that she has what it takes to close the gap before the big one in Paris. She’s been there, done it and got the t-shirt many more times than everyone else racing.

What she also has, is bullet-proof ability across the first two disciplines that if there is to be a break of some kind on the bike, she will be a part of it. And if there is, she won’t fear anyone when she racks her bike in T2. The bookies seem to agree she will be a threat, making her third favourite as I write this.

The returning silver medallist: Georgia Taylor-Brown

Tokyo 2020 silver medallist Georgia Taylor-Brown (GBR) is another case of ‘don’t write off’ experience, from my perspective.

Her 2023 season ended early with a calf tear, but the Brit – who also won gold in the Mixed Team Relay in Japan – has worked her way back into action via Quarteira, Lievin and Cagliari, where she was sixth. That Italian adventure – where she also won in 2022 and 2023 – also came with the added pressure of Olympic selection on the line. She navigated that additional stress with class… and, in my opinion, without leaving everything out on the course. There was more in the tank had it been needed is my personal take.

Rewind three years, and that preparation is significantly better than her run in to Tokyo was. That Olympic silver medal was achieved in her first race of the season, overcoming a late puncture, and navigating incredible pressures off the course, both physical and mental. No question, GTB is a contender for gold, aided by plenty of big race, big pressure experience.

The X-factor: Taylor Knibb

My final pick for a potential winner is the multi-talented Taylor Knibb (USA). Two-time and reigning IRONMAN 70.3 champion, also racing the Individual Cycling Time Trial, Knibb is arguably the most versatile athlete in the sport.

I’ve debated over whether to include her in my potential winners (here) or podium contenders (below) section, but while I feel her winning chances are relatively slim, they are not negligible either, and she does have that X-factor which could blow up all pre-race expectations of how the race plays out.

One thing we do know, is that despite all of the sporting opportunities she has available to her, Paris 2024 is absolutely without question the number one priority for the year. She has, per her coach Dan Lorang, “amazing bike power” in her arsenal, but will she be able to make it count on the flat and fast roads of Paris… and if so, how? Knibb, at some point, will surely animate this race. even her coach is saying:

“It’s not a big secret that Taylor will not wait for something to happen.”

Based in Boulder, it would not surprise me one bit if Taylor and Flora Duffy were trying to come up with an escape plan on two wheels. The question is then, can it work?

Podium Contenders

With, in my eyes, more potential winners in the women’s race than for the men, that doesn’t leave too many names in my podium contenders section. Many will have expected to have seen this name listed already…

Emma Lombardi (FRA): Racing on home soil, Emma is the current WTCS #1 for 2024 and with consistency that sees her at #2 in the World Triathlon Rankings. Given that, is excluding Emma Lomardi from my potential winners list for Paris 2024 a mistake?

Time will tell on that score, but here is my thinking. Still just 22, Lombardi is not remotely near her peak, and yet has achieved so much already. Consistent across all disciplines, she’s beaten ALL of the six names I outlined above at least once at WTCS level during 2023 and/or 24.

And yet, I just don’t see a way in which she beats all of them on the same day in Paris.

Live Outsiders

I don’t think the following names will feature on the final podium, but there are at least a couple of additional athletes that I think are worthy of inclusion in a rounded discussion on this race.

Jeanne Lehair

There’s always a fine line between reading form lines (recent results) versus trying to see how athletes are peaking or have proven results on the big day. Taking the former at least, Lehair (LUX) has been fifth (Cagliari) and fourth (Hamburg), seemingly building on the step up in performances she displayed during 2023. That included a (duathlon format) European Championship title and victory at Super League Triathlon London.

She’s brave too, and prepared to put herself into contention on the run and roll the dice. I don’t think it’ll be enough for the podium, but Lehair will likely be in the mix until the late stages.

Kate Waugh

If the stress of the incredibly competitive Great Britain selection process hasn’t left too much damage, then Kate Waugh (GBR) is one of those athletes who will be calling on her abilities to get it right on the biggest days. 10th (Yokohama), 10th (Cagliari) and 7th (Hamburg) have been solid performances – but in the context in what we are talking here, Olympic medals, not results that make her a clear podium favourite.

What Waugh has historically shown, going all the way through her Junior and U23 races, is the ability to produce her best on championship days. Second in Pontevedra at the Championship Finals was the best result of her career, for example. She will need that level of performance again given the form others have shown, plus the addition of Duffy and GTB who were absent that day.

Leonie Periault

I have no idea what Leonie Periault (FRA) will do in Paris! Her performance in Yokohama this year was phenomenal, and yet two weeks later she missed the lead pack in Italy, eventually finishing a distant 26th, almost four minutes back in Cagliari.

If she repeats any of that vulnerability in the swim and/or the early miles of the bike leg in Paris, then she can wave goodbye to any podium hopes on home soil. But at the same time, if there’s a significant lead group starting the 10km run together, then Periault is one of the athletes you don’t want to be trying to beat.

And that’s why I have her as an outsider – despite being a WTCS winner this season.

Predictions and Podium Picks – who gets the medals?

I really think that this is a difficult one to call, which makes this absolutely a race not to miss. I suspect this will be decided by a very competitive and final discipline, but trying to second guess how Taylor Knibb may try to shake things up, really makes this intriguing.

But having spent enough time trying to work this through, I’ve got to settle on a top three.

Taking into account current form, seemingly overcoming the cramping issues that plagued her in 2023 – and with the predicted race time temperatures warm, but not excessive – I’m narrowly going to go for Cassandre Beaugrand to delight the home crowds with a French victory.

If she shows any weakness however, I think that it will be Great Britain’s Beth Potter who will be closest to step in and take advantage. I do put value in the experience that the team behind Beth have at Olympic Games level, and with her own particular focus on this one event, I expect we will see the best of Potter in Paris.

And while I have set out a case with which I think Flora Duffy can find a route to victory, ultimately I can only select three names for my podium, and that 500+ days absence and a short timeline may prove just too difficult. And with that, I believe that there will be two British athletes on the podium, with Georgia Taylor-Brown adding Paris bronze to her Tokyo silver.

gold: CASSANDRE BEAUGRAND (FRA)

SILVER: BETH POTTER (GBR)

bronze: GEORGIA TAYLOR-BROWN (GBR)

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