Olympic Games Triathlon: Predictions and podium picks for SPECTACULAR men’s showdown at Paris 2024

We will soon know who the Paris 2024 Olympic Games Triathlon Men’s champion will be.

Originally scheduled for Tuesday (July 30), the eagerly-awaited men’s individual race has been postponed until 10.45am local time on Wednesday when it will now be the second of three events in the French capital, taking place just after the women’s race. Both also have a reserve day on Friday August 2.

Who are the main contenders for the gold? And who are my podium picks in this one? Here’s my personal take on what may play out in Paris:

The leading contenders for gold

Ahead of Tokyo 2020, the global pandemic meant that there was a limited form line from which to base predictions.

While we’ve thankfully not had quite that scenario this time around, the cancellation of WTCS Abu Dhabi and a significant crash towards the end of the race at WTCS Yokohama, mean that we are again facing slightly less data to work with. Complicating matters further, a puncture in Cagliari for defending Olympic champion Kristian Blummenfelt means we don’t really have a great gauge on where he is, either.

Putting all of that to one side , here is the perhaps surprisingly small list of athletes, that I feel can WIN the race in Paris:

Alex Yee (GBR): Starting as the bookies’ favourite, the Tokyo 2020 silver medallist will be many people’s pick to upgrade that to gold this time around. He won the 2023 Test Event in impressive style, slowing to a jog on the blue carpet before literally walking across the finish line with time to spare, a class above on that day. Worth remembering however that potentially his biggest rival, Hayden Wilde, was forced out of the race in the opening metres of the run.

Yee’s form this season is perfect – three wins from three starts – including another memorable battle with Wilde at WTCS Cagliari. His other outings were much lower key however, including a Europe Triathlon Cup super sprint and a French Grand Prix, where another Yee-Wilde showdown was ended by a puncture for the Kiwi.

Prospects? The best Yee is the short-priced favourite for a reason – but it’s far from a done deal. Heading into the WTCS Championships Finals in 2021, 2022 and 2023, he had strong chances to become World Triathlon Champion and couldn’t close things out. Racing in Paris – with two French World Champions in their quality squad – will also mean potentially battling against home advantage too, with the home crowd cheering for Dorian Coninx, Leo Bergere and Pierre Le Corre.

Hayden Wilde (NZL): From Brownlee(s) vs. Gomez to Yee vs. Wilde, the friendly rivalry between Hayden and Alex is fast becoming the headline act of the current generation. Silver and Bronze (Wilde) three years ago in Tokyo, it would surprise few if they filled the top two podium spots this time around.

They delivered another epic in Cagliari this year, with Yee once again just having the upper hand in the closing couple of hundred metres. Both appear to have their swim form in a position to be close enough to the front in Paris, though there’s always a chance that the strong currents and technical nature of the Seine course could throw in a curveball.

Wilde, I feel, has more strength on the bike, but the nature of the Paris course seemingly makes that pretty difficult to make it count in a decisive manner. Having Sam Dickinson as an insurance policy in the ‘pilot’ role could also come in useful for Yee, as he demonstrated so ably at the 2022 Commonwealth Games and again in Cagliari.

There are no real question marks on Wilde’s form either. Like Yee, he’s just had that one WTCS start in Italy, along with a couple of French Grand Prix outings, including a recent win in Bordeaux. Three years on from Tokyo, Wilde too is faster and more experienced than he was as his first Games and it would be a surprise to me if he’s not collecting another medal this time around.

Kristian Blummenfelt (NOR): Perhaps surprisingly for some, I am including the Norwegian superstar on my shortlist of potential winners.

The Tokyo champion produced perhaps the greatest 18 months in the history of professional triathlon, during which he won the Olympic Games, World Triathlon Championship, IRONMAN World Championship and IRONMAN 70.3 World Championship. As #1 in the PTO’s end of season World Rankings for the past two years, his 2023 season was far from weak either.

His mission now is to show that he can return to short-course racing and win the ultimate prize. Again.

One thing you get with the Norwegians across the board, is honesty. Sometimes that may be perceived as (over) confidence, but my experience with Blummenfelt is not that. Similarly, if they are not in shape, they won’t sugar-coat it – and he was “expecting more” when off the pace with a 10th place in Yokohama.

Statistically, it’s almost three years since Kristian was on the podium at WTCS level (winning the Edmonton Championship Final), and while part of that of course is due to his middle and long-course racing exploits, that’s not the position Kristian and coach Olav Aleksander Bu would ideally have wanted on their “mission impossible”. And yet… I still can’t totally write off Kristian’s chances of winning – and neither does he. Going back to that ‘honesty’ comment, he’ll have said it because he believes gold is possible.

Morgan Pearson (USA): The final name I’m personally adding to my potential winners list is WTCS Yokohama winner Morgan Pearson. A silver medallist in that epic Mixed Team Relay in Tokyo, the U.S. athlete is one of the few who, on his day, can potentially go head-to-head on the run with Yee and Wilde. That’s what 1:01 half marathon speed will give you.

What you are not quite sure of, is which Pearson will turn up, as consistency has not been is biggest attribute. Of course, there’s a lot more behind every race than simply a finishing position, but if Morgan was challenging for the win inside the last kilometre in Paris, or several minutes back and outside the top 30, neither would be especially shocking.

After describing his 42nd in Tokyo as embarrassing, he now has the experience to know that if he gets it right, he can be a contender.

Podium contenders

So who else – remember, this is just my personal take – will be challenging for the podium slots?

Team France – Dorian Coninx, Leo Bergere, Pierre Le Corre: Home advantage, the last two World Triathlon champions and the current World Triathlon ranked #1 and #2 – yet somehow I just don’t see a French winner of the men’s race in Paris. That is why I have this fine trio of athletes in my selection of podium contenders.

All are incredibly consistent (finishing 3rd / 4th / 5th at the Paris Test Event for example), and have pulled off great performances at the last two Championship Finals in Abu Dhabi and Pontevedra. However, when I look at how I think the race will play out in Paris with the run being decisive, I just can’t picture – even with that home crowd support – that any of the trio will beat BOTH Yee and Wilde over 10km.

The French have shown that they can work as a team, utilising their all-around strengths, but with two of the driving forces of the swim missing – Vincent Luis and Márk Dévay – will the same intensity to truly push for any early breakaway be there? That injury to Coninx is certainly not going to have aided his prospects either.

Matt Hauser (AUS): Hauser has been one of the most improved athletes since Tokyo. That race (he finished 24th) was the “wake-up call” that he needed. When I spoke to him at SLT Munich in September 2022, he told me:

I really went away from that and knew that I had to work really hard to try and get up to Alex and Hayden. I didn’t want to miss the boat; they are starting to change the guard of triathlon and I really didn’t want to miss that.

He’s continued that focus and progression since, and now perhaps approaching his peak years, also has WTCS success to his name including second (Yokohama) and winner (Hamburg) this year. He also has closing speed over the final kilometre, that will have other athletes concerned if he is still with them entering the last couple of minutes of racing. COVID took him out of the Test Event – but that would be long forgotten were he to make the podium this year.

Vasco Vilaca (POR): My final pick to be in the mix for podium contention is Portugal’s Vasco Vilaca. Such is the progress of the 24-year-old that he didn’t even make the Portuguese team three years ago, yet now sits third in the World Triathlon Rankings as the clear #1 from his nation.

He knows the Paris course well – he was second in the Test Event last year – and he has collected a host of WTCS podiums including three silver medals in Hamburg, including the most recent edition. His silver on the Olympic course last year was achieved despite exiting the water 30 seconds down on Yee, and approaching a minute behind the pace-setting Vincent Luis, with the likes of Blummenfelt and Wilde for company. He won’t want to be relying on a similar scenario this time around, and has shown many times he’s a far better swimmer than that showing.

Live outsiders

While I’m going to stick with the names I’ve listed to this point as challenging for the podium, there are still some high quality, WTCS medal winning athletes who will feel that they are absolutely in contention and perhaps this a a little extra motivation.

Germany’s Tim Hellwig ended 2023 with second at the Pontevedra Championship Finals in a sprint finish, plus back-to-back World Triathlon Cup finishes in Chengdu and Tongyeong. Seventh last year at the Test Event, I think a repeat of close to that would be a very strong performance from the Olympic debutant, with perhaps Los Angeles 2028 being his best podium shot.

If the Paris race is to be decided with a fast run, then Jelle Geens (BEL) will be one of those on the fringes of most people’s contenders discussions, who will fancy his prospects. His two WTCS wins have come over the sprint distance (Montreal 2019, Abu Dhabi 2021), and while he’s been a little inconsistent in recent years (including injuries and jellyfish stings!), first off he’ll hopefully make it to the start, having been denied that opportunity in Tokyo with a positive COVID test.

The opening discipline can sometimes be his undoing, forcing a lot of chasing on the bike, but if he can navigate that challenge, then fourth recently in Hamburg could suggest he is rounding into form nicely.

Predictions and Podium Picks

Can Kristian Blummenfelt recapture his Tokyo form? Honestly, I don’t think even that will be enough, as three years on I believe Yee and Wilde have proven that they are stronger athletes and faster runners than they were at Odaiba Marine Park.

As he has openly said, the Blummenfelt approach to this is ‘going for gold’, and if that means losing silver, bronze or even a top-10 in the process of attempting that, so be it. And it is for that reason, that the logical side of my brain says that the Norwegian will miss out on a podium. I can’t go against the bookies and form, and see Yee and Wilde – in that order – battling for gold and silver, leaving just one spot remaining.

And taking form and experience into account – spoiling the French party in the process – I’m going to go with a fast finishing Matt Hauser as the first Australian man to win a triathlon medal at the Olympic Games. The result – a repeat of the podium at the Birmingham 2022 Commonwealth Games.

• GOLD – Alex Yee (GBR)
• SILVER – Hayden Wilde (NZL)
• BRONZE – Matt Hauser (AUS)