With the Paris 2024 Paralympics Para Triathlon events now upon us, John Levison dusts off his crystal ball to pull together his favourites for all 11 of the medal races.
From a trio of legends looking to add a third consecutive Paralympics gold, to a veteran just weeks away from his 50th birthday, we look set for some high-quality competition in the French capital today (September 2).
Paratriathlon races at Paris 2024 – Monday September 2
Let’s get into this by first looking at the events that will take place on day one of para triathlon action in Paris. There will be seven gold medals on offer, with all of the standing/ambulant categories seeking the biggest prize in sport.
Remember that we are working to a different schedule now – first the races were due to be split between September 1 and 2, then they were all moved to September 1. Now all will go ahead today (September 2) – all thanks to the ‘water quality’ in the River Seine.
Men PTS5
In Martin Schulz (GER), the men’s PTS5 division will see one of the few athletes with the opportunity to become a three-time Paralympic Games para triathlon champion, to add to previous success in Rio and Tokyo. The German collected another World Championship title in Pontevedra in 2023, and so at first glance may appear to be odds-on favourite.
It’s unlikely to a be a foregone conclusion however. Canada’s Stefan Daniel has collected silver (Rio) and bronze (Tokyo) in the last two Games, and he will be motivated to complete the set. Stefan took silver in Pontevedra, yet both dual Paralympic medallists were topped by Ronan Cordeiro (BRA) at WTPS Swansea.
When you then add Chris Hammer (USA) – WTPS winner in both Yokohama and Montreal this year – into the mix, to name just four, then a podium separated by less than 30 seconds seems quite likely. As a slightly weaker swimmer, generally, the challenging currents of the Seine could work against the American – though he won the (duathlon format) Test Event in Paris last year in some style.
My Pick? On the biggest stage, when the pressure is on, I’m going to say Martin Schulz will reign again.
Women PTS5
For several years now this has been a Grace Norman / Lauren Steadman / Claire Cashmore battle, with everyone proving that they can win on their day. Grace won in Rio and Lauren took the gold in Tokyo, where she was joined on the podium by Grace (silver) and Claire (bronze).
It would be a surprise if – in some order – that wasn’t the podium again, though the progress of Kamylle Frenette (CAN) has continued to keep the pressure on the leading trio as the standard of para racing continues to evolve.
Steadman has not raced in international para competition this year, thanks to an Abu Dhabi cancellation and COVID, while Norman and Cashmore have not crossed paths during their unbeaten seasons so far. So, next to nothing in terms of form to go on.
My Pick? In truth, those three names in any order would not be a surprise… but I’ve got to pick a winner. On that basis, and against the backdrop of her exceptional run form through 2023, I’m going to utilise that longer-term form and suggest that Grace Norman will be that athlete to beat. The Brits will certainly not want to leave T2 with her.
Men PTS4
This one should be an easier pick, such has been the consistent brilliance of Frenchman Alexis Hanquinquant. The champion from Tokyo, it’s more than five years since he was beaten in individual competition.
That’s not to say he can turn up at 90% and still win. His countryman, Pierre-Antoine Baele will be similarly motivated by the prospect of a home Games, and has been close on several occasions, but Alexis always looks like a man in control.
My Pick? When all is said and done though, it would a huge shock if Hanquinquant did not collect his second Paralympic Games gold medal, and he’s my selection to top the podium.
Women PTS4
The biggest start list of the Games, the PTS4 race is expanded to include five qualifying athletes from the PTS3 division, with that sport class being the only one not to have a medal race in the Paris schedule.
The standout name on paper at least is Kelly Elmlinger (USA), who has an unbeaten streak stretching back all the way to November 2022. While she finished seventh in Tokyo, the program in Japan did not include a PTS4 medal race, and so that was ‘racing up’, in a class which includes the speedsters of Steadman / Norman / Cashmore.
One athlete in a similar position this time around is Elise Marc (FRA). A PTS3 athlete, her times suggest that she could be in the podium mix despite moving up in category.
A challenging swim could play to the strengths of Great Britain’s Hannah Moore, who is almost in her second triathlon career and in a far happier and healthier place this time around. Moore went one-two in Swansea with team-mater Megan Richter, who also has strength in the water to put some early pressure on the favourite.
My Pick? While she will surely have to come from behind once on dry land, it’s Kelly Elmlinger for gold on my prediction list.
PTS3 Men
Could this be one of the closest and most unpredictable races on day one?
This is the first time that the PTS3 men have been able to race for Paralympic gold, something that Spain’s Daniel Molina – who turns 50 in a couple of weeks time – has been waiting for. He topped the qualification rankings, is World Triathlon’s #1 and also the World and European champion. And yet, it’s far from cut and dried.
A slightly poor bike leg at WTPS Swansea this year – his only major race of 2024 – opened the door to World Championship silver medallist Max Gelhaar (GER). With three wins from three starts, he has confidence and youth on his side.
Dutch athlete Nico Van Der Burgt is rarely far from the podium, while could Great Britain’s Henry Urand be a surprise package? Just 21, he only started competing in para triathlon in 2023 after transferring from British Cycling. In a short period, he has made incredible progress on his swim too.
My Pick? With a mix of heart and head, I’m going to pick Daniel Molina for the win. The veteran has waited a long time for this opportunity, and as one of the best PTS3 swimmers too, has the combination of skills and experience to produce his best under the highest pressure.
PTS2 Men
If Hanquinquant is an odd-on favourite for French success in PTS4, then Jules Ribstein is perhaps a warm favourite to join him with gold in PTS2. He’s another athlete who often performs on the big stage, including World Championship wins in 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023.
He’s won both of his Para Cup starts this season, though he has been absent from all of the top-tier WTPS races, so again, limited form lines to truly assess. The (duathlon format) Paris Para Cup last year did not play to his strengths, and should we see a repeat of that, then you have to consider the prospects of Maurits Morsink. Third in the World Championships last year, the Dutch athlete is a sensational runner – quite capable of making up two minutes or more on the field over the closing 5km. His weakness, which could potentially be further exposed by the tricky currents of the Seine, is the swim.
One man in great form in Mohamed Lahna (USA), who secured back-to-back WTPS wins in late June at Swansea and Montreal.
My Pick? This really is a tough one to call – and a cancellation of the swim for any reason could really rip up the script entirely. But putting that prospect to the side, the home crowd support could be the extra motivation for Jules Ribstein to excel in Paris.
PTS2 Women
Can it be three consecutive Paralympic Games titles for Allysa Seely? Alongside fellow US athletes Hailey Danz and Melissa Stockwell, there will surely be a stars and stripes feel to the podium… but will it be a repeat of the Rio 2016 sweep?
The athlete most likely to split up Team USA is Australia’s Anu Francis. The Aussie used her bike strength to best Seely at WTPS Devonport this year, though the two-time Paralympic champion appears to be on an upward trajectory, based on a clear victory over both of her USA challengers at WTPS Montreal, just a week after winning in Swansea.
My Pick? Getting it right on the big day is a tough skill to master, and in a division with little to separate the key players, I’m going for Allysa Seely to further mark herself into Paralympic history with a third consecutive gold.
PTWC Men
Can anyone stop Jetze Plat? Almost certainly not. The Dutch star is one of the greatest para athletes across all sports currently, and has set out a quite incredible schedule in Paris.
On 2 September he will bid for a third consecutive para triathlon gold. Don’t be surprised if it looks like he is trying a save a little energy, should he be in a comfortable position in the late stages of the run. He has good reason for trying to manage his resources.
Two days later, he will race in time trial event in H4 para cycling, before returning a day later for the road race. He just so happens to be defending champion in both of those too.
And if that wasn’t enough, on 8 September he will race for another medal in the para athletics T54 marathon. With several podium finishes in Marathon Majors events, he’s a realistic medal contender there, too. Incredible athlete.
My Pick? The podium battle will be fierce – look out for Geert Schipper (NED), Florian Brungraber (AUT) and Giovanni Achenza (ITA) – but that will surely be for silver and bronze, behind the mighty Plat.
PTWC Women
Whatever happens here, you would be hard pressed to get a more incredible finish than the one we saw three years ago in Tokyo. I recently included that on my all-time list of greatest sprint finishes in triathlon history.
While she was second by the narrowest of margins at Odaiba Marine Park, since then Australia’s Lauren Parker has won everything, including all three World Championship titles.
The Tokyo winner in that epic finale, Kendall Gretsch (USA) got within 60 seconds of Parker in Pontevedra last year, and even closer than that at the 2022 Worlds in Abu Dhabi, but will need to find a little bit more if Lauren continues the consistency she has shown for the past three years.
Leanne Taylor (CAN) and Jessica Ferreira (BRA) will also not be prepared to simply make this race narrative simply a Tokyo rematch.
My Pick? It’s difficult to overlook three years of top-tier results, and with all the motivation she needs to move on from that Tokyo silver, Lauren Parker is my selection for gold in Paris.
PTVI Men
Consistently one of the strongest para categories in depth, more than half of the field will start truly believing, rightly, that they are podium contenders. Despite that competition, the gold medal favourites will still be Dave Ellis and his Guide Luke Pollard.
Mechanical problems took them out of the race entirely in Tokyo, and while they have professionally not talked about Paris as being a ‘redemption’ race or similar, the Paralympic Games gold is the final piece to claim in a brilliant career. They have all the skills and talents to achieve that, but also know that anything less than their best could open the door for a host of potential winners.
Home crowds will of course be backing Antoine Perel and Thibaut Rigaudeau, both of whom have provided stern competition in recent years. A quick look at the World Championship finishing times tells you that Owen Cravens (USA), Sam Harding (AUS), Kyle Coon (USA) and Héctor Catalá Laparra (ESP) will be in podium contention, while young Brit Oscar Kelly, Guided by Charlie Harding, have made he sort of progress which makes them believe they can be in contention too.
My Pick? Despite the massive home support for the quality French athletes in this race, it has to be a Dave Ellis / Luke Pollard victory in this one.
PTVI Women
This is a really interesting class and, I think at least, pretty difficult to predict a clear favourite. There appear to be two standouts for gold – the defending Tokyo champion Susana Rodriguez (ESP) and young Italian, Francesca Tarantello. They hold the top two spots in both the Paralympic qualification rankings into Paris, and the World Triathlon Para Rankings.
Rodriguez of course has all the experience you could want. This will be her third Paralympic Games start (she was also fifth in Rio), and she also has a bucket load of European and World titles, plus Para Cup and WTPS wins. She was however beaten on home turf in Pontevedra last year at the Worlds by Tarantello, where the Italian used her fantastic swimming skills to wipe out much of the 3:11 defict from the Interval Start System, and added to that with a great cycle and run to claim the win by 32 seconds.
They have raced twice this season, with the Italian taking the honours by just four seconds in Yokohama in May, before Rodriguez was back on top with a clear win at the end of June in Montreal. That was a huge milestone, and not just in performance terms, as it came after a high-speed crash four weeks earlier in at a Para Cup race in Vigo left her in hospital. Alongside her new Guide, Sara Perez Sala, a sign of things to come?
My Pick? This one is difficult. A tough swim would seemingly played to the Italian’s strengths, but with a combination of experience and alongside the bike strength of Perez Sala, perhaps that Montreal result will be key? On that basis, Susana Rodriguez is my selection to retain her Paralympic Game title.
